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2020 will go down in history as the year of the Covid-19 pandemic and of the extraordinary crisis it triggered. It is yet another in a series of bad years of the 21st century: 2001 saw Jihadist attacks in the USA; 2008 saw the globalization crash; 2016 saw a wave of populism caused by the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n The epidemic has underlined the fact that nations, societies and the international system are extremely fragile. With the exception of a handful of countries, governments have not managed to control the spread of the virus, and this has brought about a crisis of mistrust in our leaders. Caught unawares and overwhelmed, they have been forced to resort to lockdown measures that have caused an unprecedented recession. There are many after-effects, which will be long-lasting: people’s physical and mental health is suffering, whole sectors of the population are descending into poverty, inequality is rising sharply, tens of millions of children are missing school, governments are becoming over-indebted \u2013 137% of GDP in developed countries \u2013 and freedom is on the decline.<\/span><\/p>\n But some positive signs have emerged: the speeding-up of digital usage, the discovery of a vaccine in under a year as a result of an unprecedented effort on the part of scientists, the resilience of certain democracies (e.g. South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, Switzerland and New Zealand), and Europe’s response \u2013 from an economic standpoint, a \u20ac750 billion recovery plan and, from a strategic standpoint, a series of sanctions against Erdogan’s Turkey.<\/span><\/p>\n 2021 looks like being divided into two vastly contrasting periods. Despite the launching of vaccination programs, the first half of the year will be one of considerable hardship, still dominated by the epidemic and the soaring number of bankruptcies. The second half should be far brighter: the lifting of sanitary restrictions and the furtherance of support programs will produce a marked upswing. This change will make it clear who are the winners and losers in terms of continents, countries, companies and individuals. The dividing line will be between those who remain entrenched in fear and resentment, and those who shift to a dynamic of hope and reconstruction.<\/span><\/p>\n This coming year will therefore be decisive. It must be focused on recovery but even more so on reforms to solve the problems that we have allowed to accumulate. We should take inspiration from G\u00f6ran Personn, the Swedish Social Democrat prime minister who, in the 1990s, modernized the Swedish model: \u201cWe should never let the opportunity offered by a major crisis pass us by.\u201d The lifting of lockdown measures and of restrictions on business activity will have an immediate effect on production and employment, with a strong upswing in the service sector, which accounts for 70-80% of GDP in developed countries. At the same time, the economic and social contract will have to change in six main aspects:<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The fall in job offers, the impoverishment of the population, and the rise of inequality are a new blow to the middle classes, and this will destabilize democracies a little more. It is therefore vital to defuse the spiral of fear, anger and violence: by involving citizens more in public decisions through decentralization; by investing in education; by putting technology at the service of public policy; by strengthening the rule of law and ensuring lively public debate; by energizing people’s desire to serve the common good; and, finally, by re-creating major alliances between democracies (the USA, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand).<\/span><\/p>\n The first challenge facing Joe Biden is to reunify the American nation, which has never been so divided since the Civil War. He will have to reactivate counter-balances and reconcile people, bearing in mind that Donald Trump amassed 74 million votes and refused to admit defeat. The flexibility of the economy will enable a return to business levels in the second quarter of 2021. But this will not suffice to repair the torn threads of the nation, nor to provide the USA with a strategy that allows it to maintain its leadership. This is not the time for a third term of office for Obama but for a New Deal for the 21st century.<\/span><\/p>\n\n